Omuokutereka bbaatuleentalo zeeyongera okubuguma. Era mu bwesimbu? Kigenda kyeyongera okukaluba okulondoola ani ddala akyawangula.
Emboozi Ya Tesla Buli Omu Ayogeddeko
Tosobola kuwandiika ku kutereka maanyi mu 2024 nga totandise na Tesla. Bamwagale oba bakyaye, bafunye ekifo kyabwe ku ntikko y’emboozi.
Bino bye byankwatako: Tesla yateeka mu nkola 31.4 GWh ez’okutereka amaanyi omwaka oguwedde. Ekyo si nsobi ya kuwandiika. 31.4 gigawatt-essaawa. Up 114% from 2023. Nga bizinensi yaabwe ey’emmotoka buli omu yali yeeraliikirira (mu butuufu okutuusa ebintu kwakendeera omulundi ogusoose), ekitundu kya Megapack kyali kisirise okufuuka ekyuma ekituufu eky’amagoba.
Ekkolero lya Lathrop mu California lifulumya Megapacks ku busobozi obujjuvu kati-40 GWh buli mwaka. Shanghai nayo eri ku mutimbagano. Era Musk yayogera ku Megafactory eyokusatu ejja, wadde nga teyayogedde wa. Elon ya kikula kya waggulu.
Ekinyuvu ye mboozi ya margin. Nga omugatte gwa Tesla mu mmotoka gusigala gukendeera (okukka okutuuka ku bitundu 18.4% omwaka oguwedde), okutereka amaanyi kwatuuka ku bitundu 26.2%. Ekyo ddamu osome. Bizinensi ya bbaatule ekola ssente ennungi okusinga mmotoka. Ebiseera by’ensiko.
Naye Linda-Sungrow Ali Awo Wennyini
Wano ebintu we bifunira okunyumira. Nga buli omu atunuulira Tesla, Sungrow basically yalabiseeko ku kabaga n'agamba nti "hey, naffe tuli wano."
Ennamba za Wood Mackenzie zigamba nti: Tesla yalina akatale k’ensi yonna ebitundu 15% mu 2024. Sungrow? Ebitundu 14%. Ekituli ekyo kyali kya bitundu 4 ku buli 100 omwaka gumu gwokka emabega. Kati okusinga kibeera kya kukyusa ssente.
Professor Cao Renxian yatandika Sungrow emabega mu 1997-omwaka gwe gumu ne Google, mu butuufu. Okumala emyaka mingi, baali "just" kampuni ya inverter. Awo ekintu ne kinyiga. Ensimbi ze baafuna mu kutereka amaanyi zaabulika ebitundu 127% mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2025, ne zisinga PV inverters nga bizinensi yaabwe enkulu omulundi ogusoose.
Obugulumivu bw’Abazungu bukubuulira buli kimu. Sungrow yava ku bitundu 10% okutuuka ku bitundu 21% ku katale mu Bulaaya mu mwaka gumu. Bakolagana ne buli muntu okuva ku BBOLT mu Benelux okutuuka ku Schouten Energy mu Budaaki. Nga kkampuni z’Abamerika zeeraliikirira emisolo, kkampuni z’Abachina okusinga ze ziddukanya omuzannyo guno okuyita mu nnyanja Atlantic.
CATL: The Quiet Giant Atali Musirise Nnyo
Omanyi ekinkuba ebizibu? Buli omu ayogera ku Tesla ne Sungrow mu kifo kya BESS integrator, naye CATL etudde awo nga kkampuni esinga okukola obutoffaali mu nsi yonna era alabika tewali akitegedde.
Enkola yaabwe eya TENER yakyusa omuzannyo guno bwe gwatongozebwa mu April 2024. Zero degradation for five years. Ekyo leka kibbiremu Battery ezisinga zifiirwa obusobozi amangu ago-ekyo physics yokka. CATL mu ngeri emu yazuula engeri y'okukozesaamu "biomimetic SEI" ne "self-assembling electrolyte technologies" (ebigambo byabwe, so si byange) okukuuma lithium ions nga zitambula awatali nsonga za bulijjo ez'okuvunda.
Era ennamba zeeyongera obunene. TENER yatandikidde ku 6.25 MWh buli konteyina. Olwo ne wajja TENER Flex ku bifo ebinywevu eby’Abazungu. Kati waliwo TENER Stack ku 9 MWh-ezimala okucaajinga mmotoka z'amasannyalaze 150 oba amaanyi mu maka ga Girimaani aga bulijjo okumala emyaka mukaaga. Okuva mu kibya kimu.
We bwatuukira mu November 2024, CATL yali etandise okukola pulojekiti ezisoba mu 1,700 mu mawanga 40+. Omuwendo gwabwe ogw’okulemererwa? Omutendera gwa PPB. Ekyo bitundu ku buli kawumbi, eri abo abakuuma obubonero. Rolls-Royce ekolagana nabo. Fluence akolagana nabo. Tesla abagulirako obutoffaali.
Enjawukana ya BYD
BYD kiwuniikiriza. Era ekyo ntegeeza mu ngeri esinga okusiima.
Zibeera nnene nnyo mu Bulaaya-30% omugabo gw'akatale k'okutereka mu maka mu H1 2024. Enkola za BatteryBox ezisukka mu bukadde eziteekeddwa nga tezirina bikolwa bya bukuumi. Ekitongole kya EUPD Research kyazituuma nti kye kisinga mu Girimaani, Austria, Bubirigi, Budaaki, Spain, Yitale, Poland, ne Bungereza.
Naye wuuno ekintu: mu butuufu tebavuganya mu kifo kye kimu ne Tesla ne Sungrow ku utility-scale. Amaanyi gaabwe ga kusula. BatteryBox series okuva mu 2015. BatteryMax Lite empya ey’okukozesa mu by’obusuubuzi. Grid-scale ekula, sure, naye awo si we yakolera erinnya lyayo.
Baamaze okussa omukono ku ddiiru ya 12.5 GWh wadde-kigambibwa nti ye pulojekiti esinga obunene mu nsi yonna ey'okutereka bbaatule ku mutindo gwa grid-. Kale mpozzi ekyo kikyuka. Nga BYD, ebintu bulijjo birabika nga bikyuka.
Akatale Tewali Yalabye Kajja
Ka nkubuulire ku EVE Energy okumala akasekondi.
Towulirangako ku bo? Era n’abantu abasinga obungi ebweru wa China tebaalina myaka mitono emabega. Kati bulijjo bakwata ekifo kyakubiri mu nsi yonna mu kusindika obutoffaali obutereka amaanyi. Zaasukka BYD mu 2024. Si mu mmotoka, kya lwatu-mu bbaatule.
CATL y’esinga okusindika. EVE Energy esindika kumpi GWh 15 buli kwata. Olwo olina Hithium, REPT, BYD, ne CALB bonna nga balwanira ebifo ebisigadde eby'oku ntikko. Empaka zino za ddalu. Ebituli mu migabo gy’akatale ebitakka wansi wa 1% byawula ekifo eky’okusatu okutuuka ku ky’omukaaga.
Abakola ebintu mu Korea? Samsung SDI ne LG Energy Solution zakka okuva mu kifo eky’omukaaga n’eky’omunaana mu 2023 okutuuka mu kya kkumi n’ekkumi n’ekimu mu 2024. Kkampuni z’Abachina tezikoma ku kuvuganya-zifuga.
Omuzannyo gwa Chess mu kitundu
Geography kikulu nnyo okusinga abantu abasinga bwe bakitegeera mu mulimu guno.
North America: Tesla erina akatale kaayo. 39%, ng’esinga abalala bonna mayiro. Mu butuufu amakampuni g’Abachina gafiirwa ekifo wano-okukka okuva ku bitundu 23% okutuuka ku bitundu 16% olw’emisolo ne katemba w’ebyobufuzi by’ensi. Ebyetaago bya IRA eby’ebintu ebiri mu ggwanga nabyo tebiyamba bazannyi ba bagwira.
Bulaaya: Emboozi ya njawulo ddala. Kkampuni z’Abachina zeeyongedde ebitundu 67% omwaka-ku-omwaka. Abazannyi bana ku 10 abasinga okuzannya mu Bulaaya kati ekitebe kyabwe kiri China. Sungrow yakubisaamu emirundi egisoba mu ebiri omugabo gwayo mu Bulaaya.
Middle East: Ensalo empya. Saudi Arabia, UAE-bazimba pulojekiti ennene. Aba China abagatta ebintu nga Sungrow, BYD, ne Huawei be bafuga. Wood Mackenzie esuubira 31 GW / 115 GWh ez’okussaako ebyuma mu mwaka gwa 2034.
Asia-Pacific: CRRC y'ekwata ekifo eky'oku ntikko. Kkampuni z’Abachina ze zifuga akatale kano ebitundu ebisoba mu 90%. Si wadde okumpi.
Ate Ebikwata ku Fluence?
Ekibuuzo eky’obwenkanya. Fluence-the Siemens-AES joint venture-yali muzannyi wa top-3 mu nsi yonna. Bafunye 9.4 GW eziteekeddwa mu pulojekiti zonna 225+ mu butale 47. Enkola ya Gridstack Pro. Omukutu gwa pulogulaamu ya Fluence IQ. Tekinologiya ow’amaanyi.
Wabula akatale kaabwe kakendeera ng’omuyaga gw’Abachina gugenda gujja. Mu North America bakyali mu top-5. Mu nsi yonna? Balwana okusigala nga bakwatagana. Kkampuni eno yaakafuuka amagoba ku nkomerero ya 2023-omulundi ogusoose. Kale waliwo essuubi. Naye puleesa y’okuvuganya tekoma.
Empaka za Tekinologiya Efuna Ekyewuunyo
Wano we nneetaaga oku geek out katono.
300+ Obutoffaali bwa Ah bwafuuka bwa mutindo mu 2024. Kumpi kitundu ku byonna ebisindikibwa ku mutindo gwa utility-kati bibikozesa. Naye abakola ebintu baateekateeka dda obutoffaali bwa 500+ Ah mu kitundu ekyokubiri ekya 2025. Akatoffaali akapya aka CATL aka 587 Ah katuuka ku 430 Wh/L energy density.
Lwaki kino kikulu? Obutoffaali obunene=okuyungibwa okutono=enkola ennyangu=ssente entono. Densite y’amasoboza buli kitundu kya yuniti erinnye ebitundu 30%. Ebigere bya siteegi bikendedde ebitundu 20%.
LFP (lithium iron phosphate) chemistry ewangudde olutalo lw’okutereka ebintu ebitali bimu. Esingako obukuumi, ya buseere, era CATL/BYD eyongedde okulinnyisa okufulumya okutuuka ku mitendera omuntu omulala gy’atayinza kugigeraageranya. NMC ekyaliwo awali density y’amasoboza enkulu, naye momentum yeeyoleka bulungi.
Battery za sodium-ion? Hype eno yannyogoga. Emiwendo gya LFP gyasigala gikka, era amangu ago ensonga y’ebyenfuna ku sodium-ion yeeyongera okukaluba okukola. Ebimu ku bikozesebwa mu niche mpozzi. Naye si nkyukakyuka abantu gye balagula.
Amazima Agatali Kirungi Ku Bukuumi
Omuliro gwa bbaatule ogwa grid-scale tegutera kubaawo naye nga gusaanyawo bwe gubaawo. Kino kikulu nnyo okusinga abantu bwe baagala okukkiriza.
CATL yazimba omukutu gwonna ogw’okukakasa okukoppa embeera z’obukuumi. Okulondoola kwabwe okukolebwa AI-kutambula 24/7. Enkola za TENER zituukana n’omutindo gwa IEEE693 ogw’okuyigulukuka kw’ettaka-musisi ow’obunene bwa 9, emiyaga egy’ekika kya 5.
Obukadde bwa BYD obuteekebwawo nga tebulina bubenje buwuniikiriza ddala. Naye ekintu kimu ekya waggulu-ekiyinza okukyusa endowooza mu kiro kimu. Kino amakolero gakimanyi.
Ddala Ani Awangula?
Nja kuba mwesimbu-Silowooza nti wakyaliwo eky'okuddamu eky'angu.
Ku nkola za utility-scale systems, Tesla ekulembedde mu nsi yonna naye Sungrow essa wansi mu bulago bwabwe. CRRC y’efuga Asia. Akatale kakutukakutuka, so si kugatta-abazannyi 5 abasooka baava ku 62% omugabo gwonna mu 2022 okutuuka ku 47% mu 2023.
Ku butoffaali obutereka amaanyi, CATL ye mukulembeze omutegeerekeka. EVE Energy etandikiddwawo mu kyokubiri. Abalala bonna balwanira scraps.
Ku by’okusulamu, BYD ye nnannyini Bulaaya. Powerwall ya Tesla nsonga mu Amerika ne Australia. Enphase ne Sonnen balina ebifo byabwe.
Emboozi entuufu si ya ani ali #1. Kikwata ku ngeri akatale konna gye kakulamu amangu-35% mu mwaka gwa 2025 gwokka, okusinziira ku BloombergNEF. Waliwo ekifo eky'abawanguzi abawera. Waakiri mu kiseera kino.
Bino Byonna Gwagenda
BloombergNEF esuubira okussaawo GW 220 buli mwaka mu mwaka gwa 2035. Enkula y’omwaka ey’ebitundu 14.7% mu myaka kkumi egijja. Akatale k’okutereka bbaatule mu Bulaaya kwokka kayinza okutuuka ku buwumbi bwa ddoola 87 mu mwaka gwa 2033.
Pulojekiti za Gigawatt-essaawa zaali za njawulo. Kati ziweebwa omulimu mu Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, Netherlands, Chile, Canada, ne Bungereza. Minzaani egenda yeeyongera okusaaga.
Aba China abakola ebintu bagenda kusigala nga bagaziwa emitala w’amayanja, okutandikawo amakolero mu Bulaaya okwewala ebiziyiza eby’obusuubuzi. Enkola ya Amerika egenda kusigala ng’egezaako okuzimba enkola z’okugabira abantu ebintu mu ggwanga. Ekiragiro kya EU ekikwata ku bbaatule kyongerako ebisaanyizo by’ebifo bya kaboni ebiyinza okuddamu okukola ensibuko y’ebintu.
Era awalala mu California ne Shanghai, Megafactory ya Tesla ey’okusatu egenda mu maaso n’okutegekebwa. Kubanga mu mulimu guno, okuyimirira kitegeeza kugwa mabega.
Ensi y’okutereka amaanyi ekyukakyuka buli kiseera. Ensengeka n’emiwendo gino biraga ebikwata ku mwaka gwa 2024-2025 era mazima ddala bijja kukyuka ng’akatale kagenda mu maaso n’okugaziwa amangu. Kola okunoonyereza kwo nga tonnasalawo ku by’okusiga ensimbi oba okugula ebintu.