Ensi yonnaokutereka amaanyi ga bbaatuleebiteekebwamu bijja kutuuka ku gigawatts 92-247 gigawatts-essaawa-mu 2025, nga tobaliddeemu mazzi agapambiddwa, okusinziira ku biwandiiko bya BloombergNEF ebisembyeyo okuteekebwa mu nkola. Ekyo kitegeeza okubuuka ebitundu 23% okuva ku 70GW eyassibwa mu 2024, nga eno yennyini yakubisaamu emirundi ebiri emiwendo gya 2023. Kati ekitongole kino kikutte wamu likodi yaakyo ey’okuna ey’omuddiring’anwa-okumenya omwaka. Okuteebereza enkula y’omwaka okugatta kutuula ku bitundu 14.7% okutuuka mu 2035, mu kiseera ekyo eby’ongera buli mwaka birina okukuba 220GW/972GWh. Amasoboza agateekeddwa mu nsi yonna agakuŋŋaanyiziddwa gajja kutuuka ku terawatts 2 mu makkati g’emyaka gya 2030. Kale ye-emitendera gikula. Ekibuuzo ekisinga okunyumira kiri wa era atya, era ani amaliriza ku ludda olukyamu olw’okukula.
Omwaka Buli Kimu Kyafuna Ekinene
2025 gwe mwaka gwa pulojekiti ya gigawatt-hour.
Si mu bifo ebya bulijjo byokka. Ebintu ebiteekebwa ku mutindo gwa GWh- bibadde bitandikiddwa oba bimenyeddwa mu Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, Budaaki, Chile, Canada, Bungereza. Aba Saudi yaakayunga pulojekiti ya 7.8GWh wiiki ewedde mu bifo bisatu mu masaza g’obugwanjuba bw’amaserengeta-Sungrow yatuusa enkola za PowerTitan ezisoba mu 1,500 mu nnaku 58. Bw’emala okufuna amaanyi, efuuka enkola ya bbaatule esinga obunene mu nsi yonna ekola. Likodi eyasooka yamala emyezi nga munaana.
BYD yassa omukono ku ndagaano za 12.5GWh mu bifo bitaano ebya Saudi Arabia ku ntandikwa y’omwaka guno. Hithium yasitudde amaanyi ga 4GWh amalala. Mu makkati ga-2025, nga 13GWh ez’okutereka ku mutindo gwa grid- zaali zikola oba nga zimaliriza okuzimba mu Bwakabaka, ng’okuteebereza kulaga nti 33.5GWh we gunaatuukira omwaka 2026. Ekyo kyandifudde Saudi Arabia akatale k’okutereka ebintu mu nsi yonna mu kifo eky’okusatu mu nsi yonna emabega wa China ne Amerika. Ensi mu bukulu eyali teriiwo mu nsengeka y’okutereka amaanyi emyaka esatu egiyise.
Yitale mu kasirise efuuse akatale ka bbaatule akasinga okunyumira mu Bulaaya. Enkola eziteekeddwawo zaabuuka ebitundu 23% mu mwaka oguwedde okusinziira ku kubala, naye 52% okusinziira ku busobozi bw’amasoboza ne 40% okusinziira ku masannyalaze agafuluma-enkola ennene ez’ensengeka ezisika waggulu average. Amakolero abiri agakola amasannyalaze ga 800MWh-scale gajja ku mutimbagano mu mwaka gwa 2024 gwokka. Aurora Energy Research egiyita omukisa ogusinga okusikiriza mu Bulaaya mu kiseera kino, ng’ekuba ne payipu ya Bungereza esinga okukula naye nga yeeyongera okubeera n’omujjuzo.
China Ekyaddukanya Emmeeza
Ekitundu ekisoba mu kitundu ku gigawatt ezigenda okugattibwa mu nsi yonna mu mwaka gwa 2025 zigenda kugwa mu China. Si mawulire, naye minzaani esigala yeewuunyisa.
Beijing yaggyawo ebiragiro by’okutereka pulojekiti empya ezizzibwa obuggya ku ntandikwa y’omwaka guno-ekintu ekyandibadde kikendeeza ku bintu. Tekyali bwe kityo. Gavumenti z’amasaza zisigala zilangirira ebyetaago byabwe. Mu September, ekiruubirirwa ekipya eky’okutereka eby’amaguzi mu ggwanga kyalabika, nga kiraga nti okuggyawo obuyinza kyali kya kulabirira nnyumba ya buddukanya okusinga okudda emabega mu nkola. Enkyukakyuka eno eri ku nkulaakulana evudde ku katale-nga tuyita mu kusuubula mu kifo ekimu n’enteekateeka z’okuliyirira amasaza. Oba ekyo kikola bulungi okusinga mandates kikyali kibuuzo ekiggule. China etera okufumiitiriza ku bintu.
Aba China abakola bbaatule bafuga ebitundu nga 80% ku katale ka bbaatule cell mu nsi yonna. Ebitundu 20% ebisigadde bitera okwesigama ku bitundu by’Abachina mu ngeri yonna. Okufuga kuno kubuna mu buli nsonda y’omukutu gw’okugaba-ebintu bya anode ebikola, okulongoosa graphite, LFP cathodes. CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, CALB, Hithium: amannya gano galabika ku birango bya pulojekiti okuva e Riyadh okutuuka e Roma okutuuka e Queensland.
Ekizibu ky’obusobozi obusukkiridde kikyaliyo. Obusobozi bw’amakolero bwakubye TWh 2 okusinziira ku TWh 1.2 ku bwetaavu obwennyini. Abakola Cathode babadde mu kufiirwa-okukola ebifo okumala emyaka esatu egy’omuddiring’anwa. Abamu ku batunuulizi b'amakolero bakozesa ekigambo "involution"-okuvuganya okusaanyaawogana okuganyula abaguzi ate nga kufulumya ebituli mu bakola ebintu. Beijing yayise enkiiko ez’amangu ne bapulodyusa ab’oku ntikko omwaka guno, ng’egezaako okuyimiriza empaka zino okutuuka wansi. Obukwakkulizo ku by’okutunda ebweru wa tekinologiya wa LFP bwatandise Gavumenti eyagala bakyampiyoni b’omunda mu ggwanga, so si crater.
Data Centers Yingira mu Chat
Wano ebintu we bifuna okunyumira amangu.
Gartner esuubira nti obwetaavu bw’amasannyalaze mu data center bugenda kukula ebitundu 16% mu 2025 gwokka, olwo ne bukubisaamu emirundi ebiri mu mwaka gwa 2030. AI-optimized servers zijja kukiikirira 44% ku masannyalaze aga data center agakozesebwa mu mwaka gwa 2030, okuva ku 21% leero. BloombergNEF yakyusa mu nteekateeka yaayo ey’obwetaavu bw’amasannyalaze mu bifo eby’amawulire mu Amerika okulinnya ebitundu 36% mu December-okutuuka ku gigawatts 106 mu mwaka gwa 2035.
Ekyo kitegeeza amasannyalaze g’amaka obukadde nga 100, okusinziira ku mbeera.
Ennyiriri z’okuyunga emikutu gya yintaneeti mu Virginia ziweze emyaka musanvu. Si myezi musanvu. Ebifo ebitereka amawulire bivuganya ne bannaabwe n’ebirala byonna ku busobozi obutono obw’okuyunga, tulansifooma, switchgear, n’abakugu mu by’amasannyalaze abalina ebisaanyizo. Ekizibu tekikyali kapito oba kuzimba-kifuna olukusa okussaamu.
Okutereka bbaatule kuvaayo nga mission-critical infrastructure eri ekitundu kino. Data centers zikola 24/7 nga zirina massive swing demands nga legacy grids tezaali yinginiya. Battery zisobola okufuga enkyukakyuka, entikko eziseeneekerevu, okuwa backup awatali jenereta za dizero, era-kikulu-okuleka ebifo okufuna amaanyi amangu nga bikendeeza ku byetaago by’okulongoosa giridi.
Wood Mackenzie alaga nti 53GW eza "emigugu eminene" omuli data centers n'ebifo ebikola ebintu zijja kujja ku mutimbagano mu myaka kkumi egijja. Okuziwa amaanyi kyetaagisa, mu bigambo byabwe, enkola ya "byona ebyo waggulu". Okutereka ddala kitundu ku ekyo "waggulu."
Embeera Ya Tariff Erimu Kavuyo
Akatale ka Amerika kaali kalina okwongerako 15-19GW ez’okutereka ku mutindo gw’ebikozesebwa mu 2025. Ekyo kyaliwo nga April tannatuuka.
Trump yalinnyisa emisolo gya base ku bintu China ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okutuuka ku bitundu 145% ku ntandikwa ya April. Olwo okuyimirira ekitundu mu May kwasala ku miwendo egimu okutuuka ku 30% okuyita mu makkati ga-August. Olwo emisolo emirala ku graphite-93.5% ku misolo egyaliwo 25% egya Biden-era-gyakubye mu July. Active anode material eyolekedde okunoonyereza ku antidumping. Omuwendo omulungi ogw’emisolo ku butoffaali bwa lithium-ion obw’Abachina okutereka amaanyi mu kiseera kino gutambulira wakati wa 54% ne 104%, okusinziira ku kusengeka ne wiiki gy’obuuza.
BNEF’s base-case analysis eraga nti emisolo 54% gifuumuula ssente z’enkola y’essaawa nnya-ey’ebisumuluzo ebitundu 30% mu 2025, okutuuka ku $266/kWh. Enkola yaabwe eya 145% eraga nti ebitundu 51-74% ebiteekebwawo buli mwaka bya wansi wakati wa 2025 ne 2027 bw’ogeraageranya n’okuteebereza okusookerwako.
Anza Renewables yategeeza mu June nti emiwendo gya AC system etuusiddwa giri waggulu ebitundu 56-68% okusinga ku mitendera gya January, okusinziira ku kitundu ky’akatale. Ekyo si nsobi ya kuwandiika. Pulojekiti ziyimiridde, endagaano ziddamu okuteesa, enkola y’okugaba ebintu ekyukakyuka.
Akavuyo kano kalina ekintu ekikyamye ekya ffeeza: okusindikibwa mu nkola kwafubutuse mu maaso okukuba nsalesale. Ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okuva e South Korea byalinnye ebitundu 225% mu kwata-ku-quarter ng'abakola ebintu banoonya eby'amaguzi ebitali -China. Ebintu ebiterekeddwa ebikung’aanyiziddwa. Pulojekiti ez'omutendera ogusembayo-zadduka emisinde okutuuka ku kutandika okukola. Ennamba za 2025 zirabika bulungi precisely kubanga buli omu yali asuubira nti 2026 ejja kulabika nga ya ntiisa.
Abakola ebintu mu Korea-LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On-bali mu mbeera okuziba ebituli emisolo gye gireeta. LG eddukanya ekifo kyokka eky’obutoffaali bwa LFP mu kiseera kino ekikola mu Amerika, ku kkolero lyayo e Michigan. Samsung ne SK zikyusa layini oba okussa omukono ku ddiiru z’okugabira abantu ebintu. Ebyetaago by'ebirimu eby'omunda biyinza okukkakkana nga biwalirizza okuteeka mu kitundu mu ngeri yonna. Ekibuuzo kiri nti obudde, obunene, n’okumanya oba kkampuni zino zisobola okukwatagana n’ensengeka y’ebisale by’Abachina. Obujulizi obuliwo kati: si ddala.
Bulaaya Ezuukuse
Italy yayongerako 6GWh ezisukka mu 6GWh ez’okutereka okupya mu 2024-okulinnya kwa 58% omwaka-ku-omwaka-nga utility-scale ekola 3.4GWh. Ekyo kweyongedde emirundi 15 mu kwongera ku bintu ebinene bw’ogeraageranya n’omwaka oguwedde. We bwatuukira mu September wa 2025, eggwanga lyalina enkola z’okutereka amasannyalaze 848,814 eziyungiddwa nga zikiikirira kumpi 17.5GWh ez’amaanyi.
Bungereza yatuuka ku busobozi bwa BESS obukola emirimu nga 5.9GW/8.2GWh ku ntandikwa y’omwaka guno, nga endala 6.3GW/13.2GWh zakkirizibwa era nga zikola okuyita mu nkulaakulana. Aurora Energy Research esuubira nti 10.3GW eziteekeddwa okwetoloola Bulaaya leero zikula okutuuka ku 55GW mu mwaka gwa 2030 ne 126GW mu mwaka gwa 2050.
Girimaani yasalako enkola za bbaatule obukadde bubiri eziyungiddwa mu July, nga zaateekebwamu amasannyalaze ga 14.5GW ate 22GWh. Finland yaleeta okukendeeza ku musolo ebitundu 20% ku bifo ebitereka PV-plus-. Romania yasonyiwa enkola z’okutereka ebintu okuva ku ssente ez’enjawulo eza grid, n’esala ku nsaasaanya y’emirimu ebitundu 20-30%. Budaaki yawaddeyo obukadde bwa €100 ensimbi z’okussa bbaatule mu nkola omwaka guno.
Grid-scale yasinga okutereka okusaasaanyizibwa mu Bulaaya omulundi ogwasooka mu 2024. Yingini y’okukula ekyukakyuka.
InfoLink esuubira nti akatale ka Bulaaya kagenda kwongera 27GWh mu 2025, nga kino kigenda kulinnya ebitundu 41% omwaka-ku-mwaka. Yitale ekuuma engule yaayo, Girimaani eri mu kifo kyakubiri, era ebifo eby’omugaso-eby’omutindo mu Spain, Bubirigi, n’amawanga amalala bikyusakyusa enkula y’ensi okuva ku Bungereza-Germany-Italy triangle ey’ennono.
Ate Ebikozesebwa Ebilala?
Battery za flow zafunye buzz. Kisaana ebimu.
Kkampuni ya Eos Energy ne Invinity Energy Systems zifunyemu okuva mu nteekateeka ya Bungereza eya LDES Cap and Floor. ESS Tech yatandika okukola enkola y’okutambula kw’ekyuma-mu 10MW/100MWh mu California mu September, ng’ewagira okufulumya ekyuma okumala essaawa 12-. Form Energy yamenya ettaka ku kifo kyayo ekisoose okukola empewo y’ekyuma mu by’obusuubuzi mu West Virginia, ng’egenderera enkola y’okufulumya empewo okumala essaawa 100.
Obuzibu: tewali kkampuni yonna ku zino ebadde elaba magoba mu mirimu gy’emirimu n’okutuusa kati. Eos yabuuka enyingiza yaayo ebitundu 240% omwaka-ku-mwaka mu H1 2025 kyokka era n’eyongera amaanyi mu kufiirwa kwayo okutuuka ku bukadde bwa ddoola 207.8. Akatale ka kemiko akatali-lithium kaliwo naye kasigala nga kakoma. Abakugu abasinga banywerera ku bikola ku minzaani.
Lithium-ion yakola dda ebitundu 70% ku 64.7GWh eza pulojekiti eziwanvu wakati w’ennaku (8{3}}essaawa 12) ezigenderera emirimu mu mwaka gwa 2030. Empewo enyigirizibwa eri mu kyokubiri ku bitundu 20%. Ebirala byonna-bbaatule ezitambula, empewo ey’amazzi, ebbugumu, essikirizo-byawula ebitundu 10% ebisigadde.
BNEF etegeeza nti okutereka empewo ey’ebbugumu n’enyigirizibwa kuggadde ekituli kya capex ne lithium-ion okumala ebbanga eddene: $232/kWh ne $293/kWh, okusinziira ku $304/kWh ku nkola za lithium ez’essaawa nnya-mu kunoonyereza kwabwe okwa 2023. Naye okuziba ekituli n’okuwangula empaka bintu bya njawulo. Lithium-ion esigala etereera. Ekigendererwa kitambula.
California’s 2027 centralized procurement for up to 1GW of 12{3}}hour storage mu bulambulukufu okuggyako bbaatule za lithium-ion ezimala ebbanga eddene-enkola egenderere okulonda okuwa tekinologiya agenda okuvaayo ekifo eky’okukakasa. Oba balina kye bakakasa tekinnategeerekeka.
Kale, Yee-Kya lwatu
Akatale kakula. Ekibuuzo ekyo kyali kibuuzo kitono.
Okwongerwako buli mwaka kwakuba likodi endala. Obusobozi obukuŋŋaanyizibwa bwanguwa. Obutale obukyakula buyamba emigabo okweyongera-Middle East ne Africa zaabuuse ebitundu 381% mu busobozi obusuubirwa mu 2025, ne zifuuka ekitundu ekisinga okukula amangu-mu nsi yonna. Emiwendo gya pack gyakka ebitundu 45% ku stationary storage mu 2025, ne gikuba $70/kWh era ne kifuula bbaatule ekitundu kya lithium-ion ekisinga obuseere omulundi ogusoose.
Kyokka okukula kutudde waggulu ku misingi eminywevu. Okufuga kw’amakolero kw’Abachina kitegeeza nti okusika omuguwa mu by’obufuzi kivvuunulwa butereevu mu kugwa kw’emiwendo. Emisolo gya Amerika gyalaga dda engeri ssente gye ziyinza okulinnya amangu ng’enkola y’ebyobusuubuzi ekyuse. Ennyiriri z’okuyunga emikutu gya yintaneeti ziwanvuwa emyaka mu Amerika ne Bungereza. Okwetaaga kwa data center kuyinza okusukkuluma ku bikozesebwa nga infrastructure tennakwata.
Naye okukula? Yee. Ennamba tezirina kubuusabuusa. Mordor Intelligence esuubira nti akatale kano kagenda kutuuka ku buwumbi bwa ddoola 465 mu mwaka gwa 2030. Fortune Business Insights elaba ng’okutereka bbaatule kutuuka ku buwumbi bwa ddoola 114 mu mwaka gwa 2032. Kkampuni ya GM Insights etegeeza nti akatale kano kagenda kutuuka ku buwumbi bwa ddoola 465enkola z’okutereka amaanyiakatale akasukka obuwumbi bwa ddoola butaano mu mwaka gwa 2034. Firimu eziteebereza teziyinza kukkiriziganya ku sayizi entuufu-enkola zaabwe zaawukana nnyo-naye obulagirizi buli kimu.
Ebibaawo munda mu kukula okwo bye bisinga obukulu. Oba ebiruubirirwa bya Saudi Arabia bituukirira mu nteekateeka. Oba European grid-scale ekwata okutuuka ku residential. Oba amakolero g’Amerika gatuuse kusemberera ssente z’Abachina. Oba abaddukanya data center basobola okukuuma amasannyalaze nga bakasitoma tebannatambula. Oba kemiko endala ziyoola ebifo oba zizikira mu bugambo obuli wansi.
Ebyo bye bibuuzo ebinyuvu. Okukula kwe kumala okuwa eky’emabega.